The 2025 Hass avocado season in Kenya has begun with growing concern and frustration among farmers, traders, and exporters. Unlike previous years where market activity picked up by April, this year has been eerily quiet. Despite having quality fruit ready for export, the market has stalled—and the message from buyers has been consistent: wait.
A Market on Pause
At the start of the year, many farmers still had significant quantities of Hass avocados ripening on trees—mostly leftovers from late 2024 due to delayed harvesting caused by erratic weather and logistical challenges. On top of this, the 2025 crop is already maturing, especially in warmer regions where harvest typically begins around May and June.
But despite the availability of good fruit, there is almost no movement in the market. Exporters, aggregators, and buying companies have largely paused operations, citing weak demand and unclear signals from international buyers. As a result, farmers have been told to hold off harvesting and wait indefinitely for the market to “open.”
No Buyers, No Exports
The current situation is not a result of oversupply or poor fruit quality—Kenyan Hass avocados are still highly regarded for their oil content and taste. Instead, the root of the problem appears to be on the demand side:
- International markets are not placing orders.
- Exporters are not buying.
- No fixed dates or assurances have been provided.
This has left many farmers stranded, unable to make critical decisions about harvesting, storage, or farm income planning. The delay is particularly painful for smallholder farmers who depend on timely avocado sales for school fees, inputs, and family needs.
The Financial Strain on Farmers
For many farmers, avocados are a key source of cash flow. With the current freeze in buying, the economic pressure is building. Key concerns include:
- Post-harvest losses: Farmers fear the fruit may overripen or fall off the trees if the delay continues too long.
- Labor planning: Without knowing when or if harvesting will resume, farmers cannot plan labor needs effectively.
- Uncertainty about price: Even if the market reopens, there is anxiety that buyers will use the situation to drive prices down.
What’s Causing the Market Silence?
While exporters haven’t been entirely transparent, several potential factors could be contributing to the situation:
- Global market volatility: Political instability, economic downturns, or shifting trade policies in key markets like Europe and the Middle East may be affecting demand.
- Buyer caution: International buyers may be waiting for more favorable pricing, quality assurances, or clearer regulatory frameworks before placing orders.
- Shipping and logistics challenges: Global freight costs and delays could also be deterring large orders at this time.
- Certification and compliance: Some markets have tightened rules on traceability and pesticide residue levels, which may be delaying approvals for Kenyan shipments.
The Way Forward: Patience and Preparedness
While the current market pause is deeply frustrating, industry experts are urging farmers to remain patient and avoid panic harvesting. The fruit is still on the trees and, in most regions, can safely remain there for several more weeks without loss of quality—provided that proper management practices are followed.
Here’s what farmers can do in the meantime:
- Monitor fruit maturity and avoid harvesting too early, which can damage your reputation with future buyers.
- Stay updated through farmer groups, cooperatives, and exporters for any signs of market reopening.
- Ensure quality standards are maintained—clean harvesting, pest control, and record-keeping are still vital for export compliance.
- Avoid exploitation by brokers or middlemen offering low farm-gate prices under the guise of “market delays.”
Conclusion: A Test of Resilience
The 2025 Hass avocado season is shaping up to be one of the most uncertain in recent memory—not due to poor production, but because of a frozen market. Farmers are sitting on valuable fruit, but with nowhere to send it. For now, the best course is to stay alert, avoid hasty decisions, and prepare for a possible market reopening in the weeks ahead.
This is a difficult moment, but it also highlights the need for stronger local processing, alternative markets, and more resilient value chains for Kenyan avocado growers in the future.
